Saturday, August 14, 2004
AGVA
Annonced 1HFY04 results, very disappointing to due increasing raw material costs because of high oil price.
To hold until annoncement of 2HFY04 results to assess the revenue growth.
- Expected revenue to growth from:
1. USA - new market which was described as huger potential
2. Japan - continue trend
3. Europe - moderate growth
4. China - due to acquisition of China sub. in 1 June 04 with huge distribution network
- Management ability to contain cost and improve margin of 1HFY04
- Operating cashflow should continue to be positive, although the company paid S$3.28M for a buidling in Aug04
- Continue dividend declaration amid lower amount
Initial investment merits - Thoughts
- make use of low manufacturing costs in China to produce for OEM worldwide
Tuesday, August 10, 2004
Fibrechem
1. Strong cashflow
2. potential for increase in dividend yield
3. niche player
4. strong growth, average of at least 15% over next 2 years
5. garment market in China growing rapidly
Risks
1. Raw material priced - fluctuate with oil prices
- may be able to pass on higher cost to customer
2. Foreign competition?
Purchases made - see Trading Scapebook
Wednesday, August 04, 2004
China Flexible Packaging
Risk
- Product differentiation?
- Rising raw material cost - oil price
Tuesday, August 03, 2004
Setting Criteria
- ROE > 15%
- PE <>
- Dividend yield > 5%
- Consistent and predictable earnings
- Positive operating cashflow, net cash position, minimum debts
e.g. Vicom